Cristo, tende piedade deles

Um leitor enviou-me esta referência do alarmista Público, onde fui ver o que se passava. O artigo versava sobre a opinião da ONU, que considera o clima uma ameaça à paz mundial. Mais nonsense da silly season pensei eu; mas deu-me para fixar a imagem que acompanha a notícia, vista doutro ângulo neste post, e ficar a pensar onde já a tinha visto...

Na verdade percebe-se logo que alguém tenta assustar com a subida dos mares. Mas, nos meus conhecimentos de Geografia, reconheci que havia um problema com Taj Mahal. Mentalmente, reconhecia que o monumento fica no centro da Índia, e depois de visitar a página do Wikipedia, confirmei tal facto. Fica a cerca de 800 Km do oceano mais perto. E está a 171 metros de altitude, muito acima de qualquer possibilidade de ser inundada, dado que o degelo de TODO o gelo do Mundo levaria a uma subida máxima inferior a 70 metros!

Fui à procura dos prevaricadores e rapidamente verifiquei que a graça foi da Greenpeace, na passada conferência do clima, em Cancún. Os estúpidos, porque não têm outro nome, juntaram mais uns monumentos, incluindo o Cristo Redentor, no Rio de Janeiro. Os pés do Cristo estão a 709 metros de altitude, pelo que o nível do mar teria que subir aí uns 730 metros para ficar ao nível da figura. Uma ordem de magnitude superior ao máximo possível!

É triste ver pessoas e jornalistas, que não fazem a menor ideia das coisas, a dar voz a este alarmismo estúpido. Algo a que a Helena Geraldes e o Público já muito nos habituaram. Mas temos apenas que ter pena deles; afinal, a estupidez não tem limites!

A voz do cepticismo

Christine Rice é uma meio-soprano, mas uma física de formação. Via Biased BBC, descobrimos que ela foi entrevistada na BBC Radio 4. Num momento da entrevista, averigua-se sobre o seu passado no âmbito do Aquecimento Global, mas com uma resposta destas, qualquer alarmista da BBC fugia do tema, como o Diabo foge da cruz:

I was amazed really by the inadequacy of what we had, because we're talking about climate change which is over tens of thousands of years as opposed to the twenty years of data that we had. So in a way we were putting out a lot of ideas and not really having concrete scientific research to support it, and I suppose at that point I did lose a little bit of my spark, thinking well I could propose an idea and I could probably draft a thesis that would support it and yet I wouldn't really convince myself necessarily.

É engraçado verificar que estas opiniões dela nem são uma novidade! Numa entrevista à Physics World de Janeiro de 2009, já ela afirmara:

I started a DPhil in the atmospheric physics department at Oxford because I had some idealistic notion of contributing to the world’s knowledge of global warming and its potential dangers. I was rather dismayed to discover how fervently scientists on both sides of the climate-change argument could argue their particular thesis and manipulate the data to prove their conclusions. It seemed a little like religious faith — if you believed a thing to be true, then it could be — and I got the distinct impression that I was about to embark on the same process. Once I got stuck into being at the computer every day, I knew this was not the right place for me.

São afirmações corajosas, mas interessantes numa semana em que se vem a saber que o CERN colocou uma rolha na boca dos seus cientistas, justamente no domínio da investigação que Rice perseguia. Aproveito também para referenciar um vídeo, The Cloud Mystery, enviada por uma leitora atenta, e que aborda igualmente o tema, seguindo o trabalho de Henrik Svensmark. Aos raios cósmicos já nos havíamos referido anteriormente, mais que uma vez... As peças começam a encaixar! A ideia de que existe um consenso científico nesta matéria do Aquecimento Global, definitivamente desapareceu...

Two hours later in Rio

The second Portuguese spoken site where Al Gore will present Climate Reality is Rio de Janeiro, two hours after Cape Verde. Rio de Janeiro, the marvelous city, is known for many reasons. Environmentalists know it for the Earth Summit in 1992. Corcovado, with Christ the Redeemer on its top, samba, the beautiful beaches and Brazilian women, is what the rest of us associate first with Rio.

Al Gore also mentions the 50 kilometers of beaches. When he says that, it's implicit that the beaches will be gone with Global Warming. Al Gore should be aware though that the beaches that surround Rio de Janeiro have a history. Copacabana, probably the best known beach in the world, was one of many artificially filled. In the sixties, LNEC was chosen for its enlargement. In the first figure below, you can see how it looked before the intervention. The second picture shows the beach after the intervention. Please notice that not only the beach is bigger, but also the large avenue was introduced. Unlike today, where computer models typically fail, the intervention was done in those days by physical models, with the third picture below depicting the Copacabana model used by LNEC.


Al Gore also claims that Rio de Janeiro experiences extreme flooding and landslides roughly every 20 years. But this is not true. It really occurs every year; indeed, in this Watts Up With That post, earlier this year, Alexandre Aguiar from METSUL, goes back until 1756, and documents a lot of those tragedies. While earlier this year precipitation measured 300 millimeters (12 inches) of rain in just 24 hours, in 1883, on April 26th, 223 millimeters (9 inches) fell in just four hours! Was there Global Warming back then, Mr. Gore? As Aguiar clearly states, it's not Global Warming nor Climate Change the responsible for these annual tragedies; it's human occupation of the land and ridiculous urban planning.

There is expectation that the Gore effect might kick in Rio de Janeiro as well! The rains are not typical of September. The Winter is finishing there, and this has been a very cold season in South America. Evidence is everywhere:

• The driest place on Earth, the Atacama desert in Chile, received a feet of snow
  
• Bolivia has had the worst snow storms in the last 20 years, leaving thousands of people stranded
  
• Orangutans have been given blankets and hot soup in Rio de Janeiro's zoo (picture above)
  
• Soccer tournament "Copa America" started in freezing temperatures earlier this month in Argentina
  
• The cold snap has killed at least 22 people

Now, it is more probable that Rio de Janeiro authorities resort to their secret weapon. The Cacique Cobra Coral Foundation claims to control the weather... Its power, and that of hers leader, medium Adelaide Scritori, is so great that last year, the arrangement between said Foundation and the Municipality of Rio terminated at the end of February. One week later, a storm caused six deaths, and the Mayor Eduardo Paes quickly arranged for an extension of the arrangement... So Mr. Gore, if I were you, I would arrange for Scritori's services. You might even control Earth's climate with her, but beware: she only apparently arranges for good weather!

More hiding the decline

The University of Colorado has done it again! Despite the fact that sea level has been going down for the last year, they are saying that sea level rise rate is going up! You can see it with your own eyes in the graphics below.

In the first graph below, generated last May, it shows sea level going up 3.1 mm/year. I debunked that at the time, because the University of Colorado introduced an artificial correction of 0.3 mm/year. The second graph was produced today, and they have applied more corrections! Please notice that all the newly introduced points are below the trendline, so it should be diminishing... But no! It went up from 3.1 mm/year, to 3.2 mm/year! They acknowledge this, but give a reason for the correction:

Although the latest Jason-2 GMSL estimates (cycles 95-102) are well below the trend line, most likely due to the recent La Nina (we plan to add a sea level/ENSO comparison page shortly), the rate increased slightly from 3.1 to 3.2 mm/yr due to the improvements to the TOPEX SSB model and replacement of the classical IB correction with the improved DAC correction, as noted above.

So, once again it's about the models, and not the real data! To figure out this nasty science, I've graphed the difference between the two first graphs, on the third graph. Clearly, all data points are pushed up. Till 2002, big differences appear, that get below 10mm between 2002 and 2005, and that are even bigger after 2005. The black line, which is a linear regression trend for all the data points, clearly shows that the correction introduces a rising trend! The sea level rate measured by satellite should now be somewhere near 2.8 mm/year, and that is still clearly above what is being measured by tide gauge stations. One more example of hiding the decline!

Debunking Al Gore in Cape Verde

Al Gore has launched The Climate Reality Project. Besides English, Portuguese will be the only language spoken in more than one of the 24 locations worldwide. So Ecotretas is pleased in helping debunk this Al Gore project!

Al Gore jokes with Cape Verde's name (verde means green in Portuguese), stating that it is sandy and dry, with very little anual rainfall. His mind might probably be in Greenland, which was really green in the past. The truth is that Cape Verde's name is derived from Cap-Vert, a peninsula in Senegal, the westernmost point of the continent of Africa, 350 miles to the east of Cape Verde islands.

Al Gore should have checked the facts first. In the past, we will start with Charles Darwin's The Voyage of the Beagle. The initial part of the first chapter is dedicated to Cape Verde. When Darwin got there, these were his first impressions:

On the 16th of January, 1832, we anchored at Porto Praya, in St. Jago, the chief island of the Cape de Verd archipelago. The neighbourhood of Porto Praya, viewed from the sea, wears a desolate aspect. The volcanic fires of a past age, and the scorching heat of a tropical sun, have in most places rendered the soil unfit for vegetation.

Next, Darwin gives an idea of what the climate was almost two hundred years ago:

The island would generally be considered as very uninteresting, but to anyone accustomed only to an English landscape, the novel aspect of an utterly sterile land possesses a grandeur which more vegetation might spoil. A single green leaf can scarcely be discovered over wide tracts of the lava plains; yet flocks of goats, together with a few cows, contrive to exist. It rains very seldom, but during a short portion of the year heavy torrents fall, and immediately afterwards a light vegetation springs out of every crevice. This soon withers; and upon such naturally formed hay the animals live. It had not now rained for an entire year.

You get an idea of what climate change is, two hundred years later, in Gore's own words:

When you only get a few days of rain a year, like some of the islands in Cape Verde, any change in climate is a big deal. Cape Verde is expected to get warmer and drier, worsening existing water shortages.

Droughts are a well known fatality in Cape Verde, and over a 100000 people starved to death in the 18th and 19th centuries, long before CO2 started rising. Gore is also afraid that this tiny nation is vulnerable to flooding from storms and sea level rise. He should check out the facts relating to the Cape Verde hotspot uplift history.

Sea level rise will have little impact in Cape Verde. The volcanic islands are small and mountainous. Bigger risk areas include the lower parts of Mindelo, Praia, and other smaller places, like Baía das Gatas. But it would take several meters of sea rise to have any visible impact, and what we're seeing lately is sea level rise rate dropping.

Precipitation was very high in 2009, with flooding. Last year, precipitation was also high. The weather forecasts for West Africa this year indicate the likelihood of plentiful rains in Cape Verde. Given the track record for other recent years ^{(2007) (2008) (2009) (2010)}, the "Gore effect" might just kick in right on time, September 14th!

Flash floods are typically a problem when it rains a lot. But Climate Change is not related; instead, human occupation of the ground is to blame, as can be seen in the photos in this portuguese paper, where dry rivers have been leveled as soccer fields! But the problem has been minimized in several locations, notably in Santa Cruz, with the Poilão dam, which became full in September 2009, in a month with much precipitation. The success of Poilão was the beginning of the construction of several other dams in Cape Verde ^{(1) (2)}. Cape Verde will finally start turning green!

Previsões da treta para o rio Colorado

Os alarmistas estão a sofrer com as consequências das suas previsões! As ameaças das secas têm sido uma constante, incluindo obviamente em Portugal. Mas por cá já se provou que estas previsões são tão válidas como eu dizer que vai chover num qualquer dia de Verão. Posso acertar, mas o mais certo é enganar-me!

Nos Estados Unidos, o cenário é obviamente semelhante. Em Janeiro de 2008, Barnett e Pierce, do Scripps Institution of Oceanography, publicaram um artigo intitulado "When will Lake Mead go dry?". Lake Mead é o maior reservatório artificial dos Estados Unidos, e conjuntamente com Lake Powell, são os dois maiores lagos artificais dos Estados Unidos. No artigo, prognostica-se que a capacidade útil dos dois lagos desapareça em 2013 (10% de probabilidade) ou 2021 (50% de probabilidade)...

O problema é que eles só contavam com o Aquecimento Global... O que os modelos não previram foi a quantidade recorde de neve que caiu este ano nas Montanhas Rochosas. Segundo o NCDC, no estado de Washington, as temperaturas do segundo trimestre foram as mais baixas dos últimos 117 anos, enquanto no Oregon, idem, idem, aspas, aspas.

O resultado: o nível de Lake Powell já subiu cerca de 14 metros este ano, enquanto em Lake Mead a subida é menor, por estar a jusante no rio Colorado, mas igualmente muito significativa. E a subida continua imparável, prevendo-se o nível mais elevado da última década, em função da quantidade de neve que falta derreter.

Por isso, as previsões da treta são agora uma miragem. As imagens de cientistas da treta estão agora debaixo de água! O que os alarmistas não reconhecem é que as suas previsões tem falhado repetidamente!

Ar Cool

A notícia ecológica do dia é que a gravata foi banida do Ministério de Assunção Cristas. Como é habitual, ninguém é capaz de contabilizar quanto se poupa... É só paleio! Obviamente, as melancias já vieram apoiar a demagogia...

Em vez de cortar em coisas a sério, esta medida soa-me a pentelhice. Mas o que esperar de quem manifestamente não estava preparada para isto? E infelizmente a conversa do carbono prevalece sobre outras necessidades mais básicas...

Mas se a Cristas quisesse realmente poupar, poderia pôr o termostato a 28ºC. E iam todos em calção ou de tanga, e elas de mini-saia ou em biquini, todos com chinelos. No Inverno, sim porque no Inverno não se poupa no ar condicionado, a medida deve ser a re-introdução das gravatas, mas com sobretudo e ceroulas. Talvez uns cobertores... Aí corta-se pura e simplesmente no Aquecimento!

Uma ministra que tem tempo a perder a fazer estas conferências de imprensa, não faz obviamente a menor ideia das tarefas realmente importantes que deveria estar a fazer! Melhor decisão era mandar os funcionários trabalhar para o campo, pois se havia um funcionário do Ministério da Agricultura por cada 4 agricultores em 2005, agora só pode ser pior! Mas havia uma solução melhor, mas não haverá tomates para uma solução dessas.

Enfim, o negócio das gravatas ainda não está em perigo... Espero pelas contas da poupança para me rir à fartazana. Com um Verão fresco como este, já estou a ver as toneladas de carbono poupadas. Espero que façam as contas como deve ser, até porque, como se sabe, o rendimento intelectual e a produtividade são máximos entre os 20ºC e 22ºC, piorando com o aumento da temperatura. Como qualquer bom alentejano sabe!

Actualização: Um leitor mandou-me um apontador para outra imagem adequada... O gozo já começou (via HenriCartoon):