Climate Reality religion

Yesterday, when I woke up in the morning, I heard a strange scientist struggling with the sea level math. Later in the day, I managed to post about it. In the meantime, I discovered Allison Rogers, Miss Rhode Island 2006, the prettiest Climate Change Priestess. Today, I took a little time finding out what else she had said in the Climate Reality Tonga hour. It was not wasted time, as you can see in the video below.

I have collected a series of posts in the past, mostly in Portuguese, that show how Global Warming, Climate Change and all similar rubbish, use similar strategies as most religions do. There is a good essay linking Global Warming as a Religion and not Science. But now we have Miss Rogers showing us how this is a matter of faith and morality! She even cited Matthew 7:12. Speaking like this, she will soon be promoted to Bishophood! Enjoy the Mass:

It is rising...

Climate Reality has had some good moments. Like the moment below, where Paul Higgins, Associate Director of the American Meteorological Society Policy Program tries to answer some pretty easy questions. The first one is how much has the sea level risen in the past 50 years? And how much is it expected to rise in the next 50 years? Easy to get the numbers, as it has risen about 17 cm in the 20th century, so a good reply would be half of that, or about 8.5 cm. And if it is rising at 3 mm/year now, and it is not accelerating, it would rise 15 cm in the next 50 years, less than half a foot...

Higgins didn't have a clue, but suggested that in the next 50 years it would be in the neighborhood of less than half a meter. Gosh, when scientists don't have a clue, than the priests just jump in. Meet Allison Rogers, former Executive Director from Green the Capitol. Who is this cute girl, I thought? Well, like she was presented before, she has a degree in Religion and was Miss Rhode Island 2006! These beautiful girls just say whatever they hear, and for her, the sea level can go up 39 feet, well you know because all that ice from Greenland and Antarctica could just melt...

There were more questions. Higgins still didn't know... We just can't emit more CO2. You just have to see the video to get an idea how good this Climate Reality was... If you cannot see it below, or want a better quality, just go here, and fast-forward till 52:53

Realidade Climática nos cartoons do Josh

De todos os excelentes cartoons que o Josh tem colocado online (colecção completa aqui), o da esquerda dirá mais aos leitores habituais do Ecotretas. O escândalo do Horngate, que tenho vindo a investigar e a revelar nos últimos dias, está a ter uma divulgação cada vez maior! São milhares os visitantes que já viram esse e o outro post que dediquei ao tema. Ele está a ser propagado em vários sites da Internet, e hoje no WattsUpWithThat, e pelas mensagens de feedback que tenho recebido, são absolutamente escandalosas as previsões que se fizeram para o leste de África, que vive uma enorme tragédia!

Gore-a-thon

Começa dentro de pouco tempo. Eu vou para a caminha... Ficam aqui os links para o WattsUpWithThat e o Bishop Hill, donde retirei os três cartoons do Josh abaixo. Como diz a Judith Curry, cheira-me também que isto vai dar esturro... E nos Estados Unidos, a Mãe Natureza vai proporcionar mais um "Gore effect"...

Horngate: how contamination has been going on

Following the exposure of Horngate, I've investigated how bad science and projections from IPCC, regarding more rainfall in Eastern Africa, have contaminated other studies and planning from international organizations. What one finds is terrifying! The following pointers are probably only the tip of the iceberg. If readers know of more interesting cases, please let me know, and I'll add them further down.

I could start in many places. Take a look at Christian Aid, a registered charity in the UK. They are asking for money for East Africa right now (left side image is from their site), but what were they saying in 2009?

In eastern Africa, rainfall could increase and water supplies may therefore improve. Somalia, for example, is expected to see a 20 per cent rise in rainfall, boosting the water it receives from rivers by ten times the current supply (de Wit y Stankiewicz, 2006). A negative impact of higher rainfall may be that it creates conditions for mosquitoes to breed, exacerbating the incidence of malaria.

Collier et al., in Climate Change and Africa, are also optimistic, but their percentage is lower (sort of, because it can be more...):

In eastern Africa, including the Horn of Africa, and parts of central Africa average rainfall is likely to increase (by 15% or more).

In 2010, International Livestock Research Institute published a report intitled Climate variability and climate change and their impacts on Kenya’s agricultural sector, by Herrero et al. Following the Executive Summary, their first main observation is:

Kenya might get wetter. In Kenya, as in most of East Africa, there are very few places where rainfall means are likely to decrease. The increase in rainfall in East Africa, extending into the Horn of Africa, is robust across the ensemble of GCMs, with 18 of 21 models projecting an increase in the core of this region, east of the Great Lakes.

In this report to the World Bank from 2010, Bryan et al., try a more conservative approach. It is not the timeframe that is important, but also the "mean", referencing the above Herrero report:

In East Africa, there are very few places where rainfall means are likely to decrease, however, increases in rainfall are not likely to lead to increases in agricultural productivity as a result of poor spacing and timing of precipitation increase.

In an impressive report, in January this year, the Institute for Environmental Security also had some "good news" for the Horn of Africa:

The good news is that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that in the long term in East Africa the average rainfall is expected to increase. Water stress will therefore possibly decrease in large parts of the Horn. Although large variations in rainfall (e.g. floods) can have a destructive effect on crops this climatic change may generally have positive effects for agricultural development and food security in the region. So, although temperatures are expected to have an adverse effect, rainfall patterns may positively affect food security in the Horn of Africa.

And people start talking about this stuff. Dr Mark Collins, a Director of the Commonwealth Foundation, gave a speech in the opening plenary of the Commonwealth Youth Forum in Kampala, Uganda, in November 2007. I would expect that the boys and girls there won't remember what he said:

In the short-term the most obvious impacts arising from climate change concern the global redistribution of water resources. Severe reduction in rainfall is expected in the Caribbean, Central and South America, Southern Africa and Australia. Increases in rainfall are expected across the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and the Indian sub-continent.

Modeling over bad models, gives bad results. Doherty et al., in a paper intitled Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry, biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa say that a wetter East Africa is good:

Overall, our model results suggest that East Africa, a populous and economically poor region, is likely to experience some ecosystem service benefits through increased precipitation, river runoff and fresh water availability.

For those who say that the rain will only come in 2080, Doherty shows us some pretty neat graphics from the global models. Sure, in the first image below, temperatures are going to rise. In the second image, we can see the precipitation anomalies with respect to the 1981–2000 period (mmday^-1). Finally, in the last image, one can see the vegetation carbon anomalies. Quite clear that we shouldn't be waiting for 2080 to expect some quick results...


While the drought is underway, they just keep publishing. The most recent on the list was published in the July edition of the Journal of Climate. Intitled Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part II: East Africa, also available here, in the abstract it is also clear that it should be getting wetter now, not in some decades:

There is substantial evidence in support of a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution in East Africa during the wet seasons. The models give indications for an increase in mean precipitation rates and intensity of high rainfall events but for less severe droughts. Upward precipitation trends are projected from early this (twenty first) century.

From the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, of the Imperial College of London, you get another fabulous document from 2009: The science of climate change in Africa: impacts and adaptation. In the first page, the only "good" news is:

In eastern Africa, including the Horn of Africa, and parts of central Africa average rainfall is likely to increase.

These conclusions then get included into official documents. Like this one from UN CC-­DARE. And I could go on and on... But if I can do these discoveries in an hour of dedication, imagine what more time could do... So, if you've got till the end of this post, and you know more of them, let me know (email on the top left of the blog)...

Al Gore needs some geography lessons

Mr Gore made a wrong choice for his Climate Reality stunt in Cape Verde... I've debunked it, and recently shown that Cape Verde is benefiting from Global Warming! He chose the presenter from the Canary Islands, some 1400 kilometers north of Cape Verde. Someone must tell Al Gore that Cape Verde and the Canary Islands are not the same thing! Then, it happens that Portuguese is spoken in Cape Verde, while Spanish is spoken in the Canary Islands. An important difference!

The presenter is José Ramón Calvo Fernandez, a professor of Health Education at the Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. In the interview with Ramón in the Climate Reality site, no wonder there is not a single word about Cape Verde, because he really loves ... the Canary Islands!

This makes me wonder... I'm pretty sure that Al didn't find anyone suitable in Cape Verde to sell his snake-oil. He couldn't switch to the Canary Islands, because of a different timezone. So, instead, he switched presenters! I even wonder if the transmission will really be made from Cape Verde, or from the Canary Islands!

Then, there is the language item. Besides English, Portuguese was the only language spoken in more than one of the 24 Climate Reality locations worldwide. Portuguese is the seventh most natively spoken language in the world. But it's not one of Climate Reality's languages. Indeed, Gore has translated his site in Indonesian and French, which are the 12th and 17th most natively spoken in the World, but has left Portuguese out!

I also wonder what is delaying the Brazilian presenter for Rio de Janeiro...

More fresh water

Fresh water is a major issue that Humanity is facing. We use a lot of fresh water, most of the times, too much. And it is important that we preserve this valuable resource. But when very good news about fresh water arise, they are normally not valued by the alarmists.

This is what has happened in Brazil. Two major fresh water discoveries were made, but little has been said about it. The Verde blog brought it to my attention. Maybe, Al Gore will mention it from Rio de Janeiro, in his Climate Reality stunt?

The first discovery refers to an underground "river" that flows beneath the Amazons River, named the Hamza River. A visual representation can be seen on the image on the left, obtained here. The Hamza is a very slow flowing river, at around 10 to 100 metres/year, and is 6000 kilometres long. The flow rate is much lower that that of the Amazon, but it is much wider, at 400 kilometres. The discovery is the work of Elizabeth Pimentel, a PhD student supervised by Valiya Hamza, for whom the river was named. The good news were presented at the 12th International Congress of the Brazilian Geophysical Society, last Aug 17th.

The second discovery is related to the first, but is older. Milton Matta, and his team at LARHIMA (Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment), announced last year the discovery of the size of the Alter do Chão aquifer, believed to be bigger than the Guarani Aquifer, in terms of volume. Despite being smaller in size than the Guarani (both pictured left), the Alter do Chão aquifer is believed to have 86000 km3 of water, against Guarani's 45000 km3. This is due to a bigger thickness in Alter do Chão, which is also nearer the surface. There is enough water in this aquifer to fill Lake Superior, the third-largest freshwater lake by volume, seven times!