terça-feira, 19 de Julho de 2011

More hiding the decline

The University of Colorado has done it again! Despite the fact that sea level has been going down for the last year, they are saying that sea level rise rate is going up! You can see it with your own eyes in the graphics below.

In the first graph below, generated last May, it shows sea level going up 3.1 mm/year. I debunked that at the time, because the University of Colorado introduced an artificial correction of 0.3 mm/year. The second graph was produced today, and they have applied more corrections! Please notice that all the newly introduced points are below the trendline, so it should be diminishing... But no! It went up from 3.1 mm/year, to 3.2 mm/year! They acknowledge this, but give a reason for the correction:

Although the latest Jason-2 GMSL estimates (cycles 95-102) are well below the trend line, most likely due to the recent La Nina (we plan to add a sea level/ENSO comparison page shortly), the rate increased slightly from 3.1 to 3.2 mm/yr due to the improvements to the TOPEX SSB model and replacement of the classical IB correction with the improved DAC correction, as noted above.

So, once again it's about the models, and not the real data! To figure out this nasty science, I've graphed the difference between the two first graphs, on the third graph. Clearly, all data points are pushed up. Till 2002, big differences appear, that get below 10mm between 2002 and 2005, and that are even bigger after 2005. The black line, which is a linear regression trend for all the data points, clearly shows that the correction introduces a rising trend! The sea level rate measured by satellite should now be somewhere near 2.8 mm/year, and that is still clearly above what is being measured by tide gauge stations. One more example of hiding the decline!